Oil Volatility, Fed Patience, and Biotech Deal Flow Are Driving the Recruiting Conversation

Markets bounced after a volatile start to the week. The S&P 500 rose about 3.8% to roughly 6,824, the Dow gained about 3.6% to roughly 48,186, the Nasdaq rose 4.3% to about 22,822, and the Russell 2000 gained around 4%. The move was a relief trade after Middle East risk eased and oil fell sharply intraday.

Inflation still made the Fed's job harder. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in March, lifting annual inflation to 3.3%, the highest since April 2024. Gasoline rose 21.2% and accounted for nearly three-quarters of the monthly increase, while energy prices rose 10.9%. Core prices were calmer, up 0.2% for the month and 2.6% annually, but headline energy pressure kept policymakers cautious.

Oil had already shown how fast the market could move. U.S. crude reached $117.63 per barrel before easing near $112, while Brent climbed to $111.80 and finished near $109. Gas reached $4.14 per gallon, and diesel hit $5.64. Gold also reflected safety demand, with U.S. exports reaching a record $17.88 billion in February and JFK International Airport handling more than $15.2 billion of shipments.

Private credit remained active. Blackstone closed a $10 billion opportunistic private credit fund at its hard cap, supported by a strategy that has generated about a 13% net IRR since inception in 2007. Investor demand is still there, but capital is concentrating with large managers that have origination scale and underwriting records.

Emerging markets faced energy and currency pressure. China was partly insulated by reserves and coal capacity, while India faced a weaker rupee, higher import bills, and capital outflows. The Reserve Bank of India tightened restrictions on banks' foreign exchange positions after spending about $40 billion in reserves over the prior month.

Healthcare M&A stayed active. Gilead agreed to buy Tubulis for up to $5 billion, including $3.15 billion upfront and $1.85 billion in milestones. Neurocrine agreed to buy Soleno for $2.9 billion at $53 per share, a 34% premium, adding Vykat XR, which generated $190 million of revenue in 2025.

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