November 26, 2025
Nvidia's earnings showed how selective the market had become. The company reported a 62% jump in AI data-center chip sales and raised its quarterly outlook, but the early rally faded. Nvidia erased a 5% morning gain and closed down 3%, while the Nasdaq fell 2.2%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, and the Dow lost 387 points. Micron fell 11%, Western Digital dropped 8.9%, and AMD slid 7.8%.
The issue was not weak AI demand. Investors were asking whether massive chip and data-center spending can keep producing attractive returns. Credit markets were asking the same question, with default-protection costs on Oracle bonds up nearly 50% since mid-October. For recruiting, that is a useful AI point: growth can be real while capital intensity still becomes a valuation risk.
The macro data was mixed. September payrolls rose 119,000, above expectations, while unemployment increased to 4.4%. December rate-cut odds were around 40%, up from 30% the prior day but far below the nearly 99% probability from a month earlier. The 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.1%, and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was up 6.7% for the year.
Crypto acted like a risk-appetite signal. Bitcoin had fallen almost 30% since October 6 to about $91,700, and total crypto market value had dropped by more than $1 trillion. Morgan Stanley still sold $104 million of structured notes tied to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, with a 28% automatic return if the ETF closed at or above its initial level after one year, but full loss exposure if it fell below 75%.
Eli Lilly remained one of the strongest healthcare growth stories. Zepbound had moved ahead of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, helped by production capacity and clinical data. A Trump administration deal with GLP-1 drugmakers could expand access to more than 40 million Americans through broader Medicare and Medicaid coverage. The long-term concern is patent risk, with one analyst calling Zepbound's eventual expiration potentially the biggest patent cliff of all time.
Deal activity focused on scale and steady cash flow. Akzo Nobel agreed to acquire Axalta, creating a coatings company with nearly $17 billion in sales and a $25 billion enterprise value, with $600 million of expected cost savings. Sealed Air agreed to sell to Clayton, Dubilier & Rice for about $10.3 billion including debt, at $42.15 per share. Amundi also agreed to buy a 9.9% economic interest in ICG, showing that private credit distribution to wealth clients remains a priority.