March 25, 2025
Policy risk was the main theme. The EU's EUR150 billion defense funding program would exclude companies from the U.S., U.K., and Turkey unless those countries sign new defense and security pacts with the EU. That could keep systems such as the Patriot platform, made by RTX and others, outside the funding pool. France has pushed a Buy European approach, while the U.K. is harder to separate because BAE Systems and Babcock are already tied into European defense supply chains.
The steel story followed the same logic. The EU moved to reduce steel imports by 15% as global overcapacity reached almost five times annual EU consumption. Germany's steel sector is already cutting more than 11,000 jobs, and cheaper imports remain a margin problem for local producers. For recruiting, this is a good reminder that policy can change addressable markets, not just headlines.
The Fed kept rates at 4.25% to 4.5% for a second consecutive meeting. Projections showed GDP growth of 1.7% this year before moving above 2%, while payroll gains averaged 200,000 per month over three months and unemployment sat at 4.1%. Retail sales rose only 0.2% in February versus 0.6% expected, but core retail sales increased 1%, nonstore sales rose 2.4%, and year-over-year retail sales were up 3.1% against 2.8% inflation.
Housing was mixed. Mortgage applications fell 6.2% as the 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.72%, and refinancing applications dropped 13%. Existing home sales still rose 4.2% month over month to a 4.26 million annual rate, with inventory up 17% from a year earlier and the median price up 3.8% to $398,400.
Google's $32 billion Wiz acquisition was the main tech M&A story. It would be Google's largest deal and is expected to close in 2026 after an earlier $23 billion attempt failed. Wiz reached $100 million of annual recurring revenue within 18 months of its 2020 founding and had been targeting an IPO and $1 billion of ARR. Alphabet fell 2% after the announcement and was down 15% year to date, showing that strategic fit does not erase price and integration questions.
BYD also pushed the EV story forward with charging technology that can add 400 kilometers of range in five minutes. Its Hong Kong shares rose as much as 6% before finishing up 3.2%, while February deliveries reached 318,233 units. Tesla's China sales fell 49% year over year to 30,688. Germany's real GDP had grown only 0.1% over five years and fell 0.2% in 2024, so the broader takeaway is that defense, autos, technology, and fiscal policy are now tightly connected.